Casino bonuses, priced by expected value
Every operator publishes a wagering multiplier. We compute what it actually costs — required turnover, the chance of busting first, and net expected value — from each operator’s own terms.How this is calculated
- Offers tracked
- 8
- Priced
- 3
- Negative EV
- 2
- Value spread
- $574
Our pick
Duel — 50% instant rakeback, no bonus at allNo wagering requirement · returns ~$175 per $10,000 stakedBut why?
Our model was built to price welcome bonuses, and it kept reaching the same verdict: the requirement is the product. The operator that runs no bonus therefore wins by not competing. That is an uncomfortable conclusion for a bonus comparison site to publish, so we are publishing it.
- No wagering requirement
- Every graded row below carries a cost because there is turnover to survive. This offer has none, so there is no requirement to fail and no bonus to forfeit.
- Rakeback, not bonus credit
- A share of the house edge is returned on every bet and is withdrawable immediately, rather than released as balance that has to be cleared first.
- Zero-edge limits published
- The house games run at no edge up to a stated daily allowance, after which a scaling edge applies. The limits are disclosed rather than buried.
Rakeback compared, like for like
Duel returns ~12.5× what Stake does| Operator | Quoted | Of turnover | Per $10k |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duel | 50% | ~1.75% | ~$175 |
| Gamdom | 15% | ~0.60% | ~$60 |
| Stake | 3.5% | ~0.14% | ~$14 |
All quote rakeback as a share of house edge, so the quoted percentages are not comparable on their own. Converted against each operator’s third-party slot RTP, they are. Figures are approximate: your return moves with the RTP of the title you play.
All offers
8| # | Site | Bonus & terms | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Duel Our pick | 50% of house edge No wagering | — | — | ~+1.75%of turnover | — | |
| 02 |  Gamdom Rakeback | 15% of house edge No wagering | — | — | ~+0.60%of turnover | — | |
| 03 |  Rainbet Deposit match | 100% to $700 40× deposit + bonusMax bet $14 | $56K | 82% | +$17 | B | |
| 04 |  Stake Rakeback | 3.5% of house edge No wagering | — | — | ~+0.14%of turnover | — | |
| 05 |  BetFury Deposit match | 150% to $2,500 40× bonus onlyCap $3,000Max bet $10 | $100K | 57% | −$82 | C | |
| 06 | Rainbet Deposit match | 100% to $700 500× bonus only | $350K | 98% | −$558 | F | |
| 07 |  BC.Game Deposit match | 360% match, no stated cap No wagering | — | — | — | — | |
| 08 | Rainbet Free spins | 20 spins @ $0.20 40× spin winningsMax bet $14 | — | — | — | — |
- Grade
- A≥ 10%
- B≥ 0%
- C≥ -10%
- D≥ -25%
- Fbelow −25%
- of deposit
How to read Real cost. Bonus offers show net expected value on the deposit that maximises the bonus. Rakeback offers show the return per unit staked, since there is no bonus to clear — worth$100 per $10,000 wagered at 1%. The two are different bases and are labelled as such in each row. Rakeback figures are marked ~ because the return depends on the house edge of the game you actually play. All outbound links on this page are affiliate links.
Terms change without notice. Every offer here was last checked against the operator’s own terms on 6 Aug 2026, and we re-check monthly. Figures may lag a change made since — always confirm the current terms on the operator’s site before depositing.
The multiplier is rarely the binding term
Subtracting expected loss from a bonus makes most offers look catastrophic, but that assumes the requirement gets completed. Often it cannot be: the balance runs out first, and busting caps the loss at the deposit while the bonus absorbs the rest.
So the terms that decide an offer are the two that are never advertised — the cashout cap, which removes the upper tail, and themaximum bet, which forces the turnover to be ground out rather than gambled through. Both appear in the table above.